It's taken some time but all the results are finally in. Time to review the contests I previewed.
The Legislative Council
After what ended up coming down to what Green's candidate Jeremy Buckingham described as a 'neck and redneck battle' the final results are in. Thankfully Pauline Hanson, despite getting a surprising portion of the first preference vote didn't win a seat. The results were:
Liberal/Nationals - 11
Labor - 5
The Greens - 3
Shooters and Fishers - 1
Christian Democrats - 1
This was in line with what the polls predicted with the Greens performing well enough on preferences to pick up an additional seat and the CDP taking back the Family First seat that was the result of Gordon Moyes defection.
Pauline Hanson picked up 2.4% of the primary vote and came very close to winning. This performance surprised many, but if you examine her last tilt at the LC the combined Hanson/One Nation percentage of the vote was 3.4%. Although her personal support appears to have picked up since 2003 (where it was 1.9%) it's likely these were stolen from those who voted for One Nation at the time.
John Hatton unfortunately didn't pick up many votes, receiving a similar number to the Fishing Party, Family First and the No Parking Meters Party. Most of his votes exhausted so he didn't help elect anyone really.
The Side Contests
Marrickville - Labor retained by the skin of it's teeth - an 0.9% margin. It was always going to be close. If the Greens can continue to swing towards them, with an impressive 35.9% of the primary vote, they'll probably take it at the next election.
Balmain - In rare 3-way contest the Greens did manage to take Balmain (though with a lower primary vote than in Marrickville - 30.7%) and hold it with a 3.5% margin against the Liberal Party.
Wollongong - Despite a massive swing against it (24.3%) Labor managed to hang on against the Independent Gordon Bradbery with a margin of just 1%.
Sydney - Clover Moore managed to retain Sydney - except where she held it before with a 16.6% margin against Labor she now holds it with a 3.1% margin against the Liberal Party.
Lake Macquarie - Greg Piper easily retained the seat, although as in Sydney the 2PP vote is now against the Liberals.
Newcastle - In what was probably the best Labor performance in the State the sitting member Jodi McKay lost only 0.6% of the primary vote, however the Independent challenger was decimated delivering the seat to the Liberal Party
Dubbo, Tamworth and Port Macquarie - All fell to the Nationals which wasn't a surprise
Hornsby - Independent Nick Berman put in a good show but not good enough to beat the Liberal candidate.
As a side note it was interesting to see the number of safe Liberal seats where the Greens out-polled Labor on first preferences. This happened in at least Davidson, Hornsby, Ku-ring-gai, Lane Cove, Manly, North Shore, Pittwater, Vaucluse, Wakehurst and Willoughby. The two candidate preferred vote for many of these seats is going to need to be reviewed - in some cases these seats may become Liberal vs Green (depending on exhaustion of preferences).
The Swing
It was almost certainly historic and we know what the results are on the primary vote (roughly - there's still votes to be counted). But it's going to be another couple of weeks before we know the final swing. Watch this space.
Tuesday, 12 April 2011
Saturday, 9 April 2011
Links of the week
Although the result in Balmain has finally been sorted, the race for the last seat in the NSW Legislative Council is still ongoing. Antony Green tracks the progress. I'll post my wash up of the results when this contest is finally decided.
Despite the Greens poorer than expected performance in the State election Greens MLC Cate Faehrmann argues what the party needs to do to become a party of government in a generation.
Sean Nicholls in the National Times argues that that Barry O'Farrell's honeymoon may almost be over. Although much has been made of the restructure of the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water there has been very little media interest in the broader departmental reshuffle. The only department that remains untouched is Transport with many other departments are undergoing changes as big as that of DECCW and some senior public service executives have already been given the sack. (If you feel like some reading the full administrative order detailing the restructure is here) In particular few commentators have worked out that the majority of the public service will be spending the next few months implementing the restructure as opposed to policies and programs. This has very real implications for a government trying to look like they're achieving results. It's telling that the big ticket items in Barry O'Farrell's 100 Day Plan are to be implemented by the departments that are undergoing fewer changes.
More on the climate change debate. Paul Griffiths and Mark Colyvan on The Drum examine how difficult it is for the public to work out who is speaking with the authority of science. Also on the Drum Darren Osborne shows how science actually works - your opinion should follow the evidence, not the other way around - in preliminary results of a new analysis of global temperature data. On the front of solutions New Scientist reviews research suggesting that large scale implementation of wind power could have unintended consequences and Jessica Irvine in the National Times discusses how the economics of a carbon tax is supposed to work.
Despite the Greens poorer than expected performance in the State election Greens MLC Cate Faehrmann argues what the party needs to do to become a party of government in a generation.
Sean Nicholls in the National Times argues that that Barry O'Farrell's honeymoon may almost be over. Although much has been made of the restructure of the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water there has been very little media interest in the broader departmental reshuffle. The only department that remains untouched is Transport with many other departments are undergoing changes as big as that of DECCW and some senior public service executives have already been given the sack. (If you feel like some reading the full administrative order detailing the restructure is here) In particular few commentators have worked out that the majority of the public service will be spending the next few months implementing the restructure as opposed to policies and programs. This has very real implications for a government trying to look like they're achieving results. It's telling that the big ticket items in Barry O'Farrell's 100 Day Plan are to be implemented by the departments that are undergoing fewer changes.
More on the climate change debate. Paul Griffiths and Mark Colyvan on The Drum examine how difficult it is for the public to work out who is speaking with the authority of science. Also on the Drum Darren Osborne shows how science actually works - your opinion should follow the evidence, not the other way around - in preliminary results of a new analysis of global temperature data. On the front of solutions New Scientist reviews research suggesting that large scale implementation of wind power could have unintended consequences and Jessica Irvine in the National Times discusses how the economics of a carbon tax is supposed to work.
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
Links of the week
I'll review the results of the State Election once the fallout from the LC and Balmain are known, probably by this weekend. In other news:
Gavin Atkins on The Drum and Adam Brereton on New Matilda document last week's anti-carbon-tax rally. Jeremy Bass writing in the National Times is concerned that it represents the rise of 'astroturfing' in Australia.
Also on climate change the ever predictable Chris Berg responds on The Drum to Jonathon Holmes' piece on Media Watch suggesting that the Commercial Broadcaster's Code of Practice requires the talkback radio shock jocks to have a more balanced coverage. Elsewhere the National Times examines the question: Should we have an absolute freedom of speech?
Meanwhile Massimo Pigliucci examines on Rationally Speaking whether the bombing of Libya amounts to a 'just war'.
Gavin Atkins on The Drum and Adam Brereton on New Matilda document last week's anti-carbon-tax rally. Jeremy Bass writing in the National Times is concerned that it represents the rise of 'astroturfing' in Australia.
Also on climate change the ever predictable Chris Berg responds on The Drum to Jonathon Holmes' piece on Media Watch suggesting that the Commercial Broadcaster's Code of Practice requires the talkback radio shock jocks to have a more balanced coverage. Elsewhere the National Times examines the question: Should we have an absolute freedom of speech?
Meanwhile Massimo Pigliucci examines on Rationally Speaking whether the bombing of Libya amounts to a 'just war'.
Tuesday, 22 March 2011
NSW State Election Contests: The Swing
This is the final in my series of NSW State Election Contests posts, previewing the interesting contests for election watchers beyond the obvious conclusion of the poll. I'll be back after March 26 to make more commentary. In this post I'll examine the swing.
What is the swing?
For those Lindy Hoppers out there I'm not talking about this, I'm talking about what is mooted to be one of the largest swings in Australian electoral history. The swing is a crude measure of the change in the two-party preferred vote since the last election. It is supposed to measure the change in preference of the electorate for one side of politics over the other. However it does have a number of flaws. It's not an entirely useful concept as in a multiseat parliament where each seat elects one candidate, the swing may not necessarily predict the outcome of the election particularly for close elections. It also doesn't reveal complexities in voter trends, such as the recent rise of the Greens, or shed much light on local contests with independents.
However as a single number to tell you how the election fares up for the major parties it's the best figure out there.
A brief comparison of past swings
Antony Green has an excellent post on his blog about past swings in Australian electoral history. Here's a few records since 1950 (prior to 1950 it is difficult to determine a 2 party preferred vote):
Polling
There are four main polling companies that gather data for the NSW Election (although there are others). Two of these are commissioned by the two major newspaper organisations in Australia (Nielsen by Fairfax, published in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, and Newspoll by Newscorp published in The Australian), another poll is done by Essential Media a social marketing and communications firm and the fourth by Galaxy Research another PR and communications research firm.
Here are the last four polls done by each firm. They all differ in their timing and methodology and the additional questions asked. I've listed the primary votes of Labor, the Coalition and the Greens and then the two-party preferred vote (2PP) as well as the swing.
Nielsen - Published 16 February - Swing 18%
Labor 22%
LNP 53%
Green 13%
Labor 2PP 34%
LNP 2PP 66%
Galaxy Poll - Published March 4 - Swing - 16%
Labor 23%
LNP 50%
Green 14%
Labor 2PP 36%
LNP 2PP 64%
Newspoll - Published 14 March - Swing 15%
Labor 26%
LNP 50%
Green 11%
Labor 2PP 37%
LNP 2PP 63%
Essential Poll - Published 18 March - Swing 17%
Labor 24%
LNP 54%
Green 12%
Labor 2PP 35%
LNP 2PP 65%
This sort of polling generally has sampling errors of a few percent so there's no clear trend up or down in the data. What is clear is that even the lowest swing is pointing towards what will almost certain be a record in NSW and likely a record nationally too.
Applying these results broadly suggest a result along the lines of:
Coalition: 65-71 (including 16 Nationals)
Labor: 13-19
Greens: 2
Independents: 7
Though as I outlined in my previous post, some of the independents are in for a tough fight whilst some Labor seats could be had by independents. A statewide swing doesn't tell you much about these local contests.
Some might suggest that at least part of the swing is due to other factors. I'll talk about two that are sometimes discussed:
Incumbency
It is suggested that incumbent candidates receive an advantage in elections. It's difficult to determine what the average advantage is, but it's usually assumed to be between 1 and 2%. With so many Labor members retiring at this election (18 vs 7 Coalition MPs) you might assume that this could affect the magnitude of the swing. However in a 93 member house the effect would be less than a half of a percent and not influence the result. It could lead to the loss of a seat that Labor would otherwise be able to retain if the seat with a retiring member is held by a margin close to the predicted swing, though only Campbelltown would fit this description.
An increase in the Green vote
An increase in the Green vote (assuming it's coming from what would otherwise be Labor supporters) would reduce Labor's primary vote and potentially its two party preferred vote through exhaustion of preferences. However given that the Green vote appears to have collapsed almost back to it's 2007 figure of about 9% (possibly from left voters switching back to Labor in a futile attempt to boost its primary vote) it's unlikely that the small increase in the Green vote will increase the swing by much.
Conclusion
Aside from a record breaker, there's nothing terribly exciting about the swing in this election. The 'Bazslide' (you heard it here first) is going to go down in the history books. I'll know what I'll be watching on election night - the Legislative Council and the local side contests.
What is the swing?
For those Lindy Hoppers out there I'm not talking about this, I'm talking about what is mooted to be one of the largest swings in Australian electoral history. The swing is a crude measure of the change in the two-party preferred vote since the last election. It is supposed to measure the change in preference of the electorate for one side of politics over the other. However it does have a number of flaws. It's not an entirely useful concept as in a multiseat parliament where each seat elects one candidate, the swing may not necessarily predict the outcome of the election particularly for close elections. It also doesn't reveal complexities in voter trends, such as the recent rise of the Greens, or shed much light on local contests with independents.
However as a single number to tell you how the election fares up for the major parties it's the best figure out there.
A brief comparison of past swings
Antony Green has an excellent post on his blog about past swings in Australian electoral history. Here's a few records since 1950 (prior to 1950 it is difficult to determine a 2 party preferred vote):
- Last NSW Election - 3.7% against Labor
- Record at a State Election - 14.6% against Labor in Victoria in 1955
- Record at NSW Election - 9.1% to Labor in the 1978 Wranslide
- Record at NSW Election for change of Government - 8.3% against Labor in 1988
- Record at Federal Election - 7.4% against the (dismissed) Labor Government in 1975
Polling
There are four main polling companies that gather data for the NSW Election (although there are others). Two of these are commissioned by the two major newspaper organisations in Australia (Nielsen by Fairfax, published in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, and Newspoll by Newscorp published in The Australian), another poll is done by Essential Media a social marketing and communications firm and the fourth by Galaxy Research another PR and communications research firm.
Here are the last four polls done by each firm. They all differ in their timing and methodology and the additional questions asked. I've listed the primary votes of Labor, the Coalition and the Greens and then the two-party preferred vote (2PP) as well as the swing.
Nielsen - Published 16 February - Swing 18%
Labor 22%
LNP 53%
Green 13%
Labor 2PP 34%
LNP 2PP 66%
Galaxy Poll - Published March 4 - Swing - 16%
Labor 23%
LNP 50%
Green 14%
Labor 2PP 36%
LNP 2PP 64%
Newspoll - Published 14 March - Swing 15%
Labor 26%
LNP 50%
Green 11%
Labor 2PP 37%
LNP 2PP 63%
Essential Poll - Published 18 March - Swing 17%
Labor 24%
LNP 54%
Green 12%
Labor 2PP 35%
LNP 2PP 65%
This sort of polling generally has sampling errors of a few percent so there's no clear trend up or down in the data. What is clear is that even the lowest swing is pointing towards what will almost certain be a record in NSW and likely a record nationally too.
Applying these results broadly suggest a result along the lines of:
Coalition: 65-71 (including 16 Nationals)
Labor: 13-19
Greens: 2
Independents: 7
Though as I outlined in my previous post, some of the independents are in for a tough fight whilst some Labor seats could be had by independents. A statewide swing doesn't tell you much about these local contests.
Some might suggest that at least part of the swing is due to other factors. I'll talk about two that are sometimes discussed:
Incumbency
It is suggested that incumbent candidates receive an advantage in elections. It's difficult to determine what the average advantage is, but it's usually assumed to be between 1 and 2%. With so many Labor members retiring at this election (18 vs 7 Coalition MPs) you might assume that this could affect the magnitude of the swing. However in a 93 member house the effect would be less than a half of a percent and not influence the result. It could lead to the loss of a seat that Labor would otherwise be able to retain if the seat with a retiring member is held by a margin close to the predicted swing, though only Campbelltown would fit this description.
An increase in the Green vote
An increase in the Green vote (assuming it's coming from what would otherwise be Labor supporters) would reduce Labor's primary vote and potentially its two party preferred vote through exhaustion of preferences. However given that the Green vote appears to have collapsed almost back to it's 2007 figure of about 9% (possibly from left voters switching back to Labor in a futile attempt to boost its primary vote) it's unlikely that the small increase in the Green vote will increase the swing by much.
Conclusion
Aside from a record breaker, there's nothing terribly exciting about the swing in this election. The 'Bazslide' (you heard it here first) is going to go down in the history books. I'll know what I'll be watching on election night - the Legislative Council and the local side contests.
Thursday, 17 March 2011
NSW State Election Contests: The Side Contests
Just because the election is all but a foregone conclusion doesn't mean there still aren't some exciting contests happening. I've put together a list of electorates to watch on the evening of the 26th. They won't change the result of this election but could set up an interesting contest in 2015 with the rise of Independents and minor parties in traditional Labor heartland. I'm going to categorise these contests more broadly by which parties they are between.
Labor vs Green
Marrickville
Deputy Premier and health minister Carmel Tebbut holds this seat with a 7.5% margin against the Greens. The Greens candidate is the Mayor of Marrickville, Fiona Byrne. A low Liberal primary vote and lack of other front-running candidates would indicate a Green win, however bad press relating to Marrickville Council's boycott of Israel as well as claims of some dirty tricks muddy the waters somewhat. One to watch closely.
Balmain
Labor education minister Verity Firth holds this seat with a margin of 3.7% against the Greens whose candidate is also a local Mayor. The Green candidate, popular Leichhardt Mayor Jamie Parker, is tipped to win with the crash in the Labor vote. The Greens face more challenges in Balmain than in Marrickville, with the Independent, former Mayor Maire Sheehan, potentially splitting the green/left vote and the Liberals polling higher in Balmain than Marrickville. There's an outside chance the Liberals could win on first preferences and steal the seat or of Labor retaining it - making Balmain a seat to watch.
Labor vs Independent
Wollongong
Labor holds this seat by one of the biggest margins in the State (25.3%) but the sitting member, Noreen Hay has been embroiled in a number of scandals including corruption at Wollongong City Council. She was cleared of any wrongdoing but damage to the Labor brand and a lack of any local government elections for the electorate to express their displeasure could narrow that margin significantly. Well known local minister Gordon Bradbery is running as an Independent and is polling quite highly, but would need preferences from Green and Liberal voters to get over the line. The how-to-vote strategies from the Greens do preference Bradbery, but the Liberals don't lower his chances. Nevertheless this could be the only seat in the State which goes from being safe Labor to marginal against an Independent at this election.
Sydney
Independent and Lord Mayor of the City of Sydney holds this seat with what appears to be a comfortable margin, 16.6%. Moore should retain the seat however voter dissatisfaction with her mayoral performance may reduce her primary vote. A split on the left and a large number of exhausted votes could give the Liberals an outside chance at victory.
Lake Macquarie
Independent and Mayor Lake Macquarie Council holds the seat with a very narrow margin, 0.1%, over the ALP. Although he needs Green and Liberal preferences to hold the seat it's highly unlikely he'll lose to Labor in this election.
Newcastle
Former local news reader and current sitting Labor member Jodi McKay battles Newcastle Mayor and Independent John Tate. McKay holds the seat by 1.2%, so Tate has a reasonable chance of winning if the 17% swing against Labor at the 2007 election continues.
Independent vs National
Dubbo
Sitting Independent Dawn Fardell holds this seat by 0.9% over the Nationals candidate of Troy Grant. With dissatisfaction at the rural independents federally and a desire by the locals to have their member in government this seat is tipped to fall to the Nationals.
Port Macquarie
Peter Besseling has held this seat since a 2008 by-election after the move by Rob Oakeshott to Federal Parliament. He holds it by a fairly slim margin, 4.5% and dissatisfaction with Oakeshott and a desire by the locals to have their member in government could mean a loss to the Nats.
Tamworth
Independent Peter Draper holds this seat by 4.8%, although holding the seat since 2003 is in similar circumstances to Peter Besseling in Port Macquarie.
Liberal vs Independent
Hornsby
Hornsby Mayor Nick Berman got passed over for pre-selection and has decided to challenge the Liberal candidate Matt Kean as an Independent. The sitting Liberal member is retiring so Berman has a decent chance at splitting the Liberal vote. However votes for the right side of politics are quite high, making it unlikely that Berman will win.
There are a number of other seats where high profile Independents or Greens could narrow margins considerably however any change in those seats (aside from Labor to Liberal) is unlikely. I'm not going to discount any bolts from the blue though.
Labor vs Green
Marrickville
Deputy Premier and health minister Carmel Tebbut holds this seat with a 7.5% margin against the Greens. The Greens candidate is the Mayor of Marrickville, Fiona Byrne. A low Liberal primary vote and lack of other front-running candidates would indicate a Green win, however bad press relating to Marrickville Council's boycott of Israel as well as claims of some dirty tricks muddy the waters somewhat. One to watch closely.
Balmain
Labor education minister Verity Firth holds this seat with a margin of 3.7% against the Greens whose candidate is also a local Mayor. The Green candidate, popular Leichhardt Mayor Jamie Parker, is tipped to win with the crash in the Labor vote. The Greens face more challenges in Balmain than in Marrickville, with the Independent, former Mayor Maire Sheehan, potentially splitting the green/left vote and the Liberals polling higher in Balmain than Marrickville. There's an outside chance the Liberals could win on first preferences and steal the seat or of Labor retaining it - making Balmain a seat to watch.
Labor vs Independent
Wollongong
Labor holds this seat by one of the biggest margins in the State (25.3%) but the sitting member, Noreen Hay has been embroiled in a number of scandals including corruption at Wollongong City Council. She was cleared of any wrongdoing but damage to the Labor brand and a lack of any local government elections for the electorate to express their displeasure could narrow that margin significantly. Well known local minister Gordon Bradbery is running as an Independent and is polling quite highly, but would need preferences from Green and Liberal voters to get over the line. The how-to-vote strategies from the Greens do preference Bradbery, but the Liberals don't lower his chances. Nevertheless this could be the only seat in the State which goes from being safe Labor to marginal against an Independent at this election.
Sydney
Independent and Lord Mayor of the City of Sydney holds this seat with what appears to be a comfortable margin, 16.6%. Moore should retain the seat however voter dissatisfaction with her mayoral performance may reduce her primary vote. A split on the left and a large number of exhausted votes could give the Liberals an outside chance at victory.
Lake Macquarie
Independent and Mayor Lake Macquarie Council holds the seat with a very narrow margin, 0.1%, over the ALP. Although he needs Green and Liberal preferences to hold the seat it's highly unlikely he'll lose to Labor in this election.
Newcastle
Former local news reader and current sitting Labor member Jodi McKay battles Newcastle Mayor and Independent John Tate. McKay holds the seat by 1.2%, so Tate has a reasonable chance of winning if the 17% swing against Labor at the 2007 election continues.
Independent vs National
Dubbo
Sitting Independent Dawn Fardell holds this seat by 0.9% over the Nationals candidate of Troy Grant. With dissatisfaction at the rural independents federally and a desire by the locals to have their member in government this seat is tipped to fall to the Nationals.
Port Macquarie
Peter Besseling has held this seat since a 2008 by-election after the move by Rob Oakeshott to Federal Parliament. He holds it by a fairly slim margin, 4.5% and dissatisfaction with Oakeshott and a desire by the locals to have their member in government could mean a loss to the Nats.
Tamworth
Independent Peter Draper holds this seat by 4.8%, although holding the seat since 2003 is in similar circumstances to Peter Besseling in Port Macquarie.
Liberal vs Independent
Hornsby
Hornsby Mayor Nick Berman got passed over for pre-selection and has decided to challenge the Liberal candidate Matt Kean as an Independent. The sitting Liberal member is retiring so Berman has a decent chance at splitting the Liberal vote. However votes for the right side of politics are quite high, making it unlikely that Berman will win.
There are a number of other seats where high profile Independents or Greens could narrow margins considerably however any change in those seats (aside from Labor to Liberal) is unlikely. I'm not going to discount any bolts from the blue though.
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